India to witness COVID-19 peak in mid-November: ICMR study

July 15: The outbreak of coronavirus pandemic is witnessing immense surge in the numbers during the phase of Unlock 1.0. Though the recovery rate is also increasing, but with the resuming of road, rail and airways, the positive cases are increasing now in almost all the states. India registered more than 10,000 cases for the third day in a row and is the fourth worst-hit nation by the COVID-19 pandemic.

In a study conducted by researchers from an operations research group constituted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), it was stated that the peak stage of COVID-19 pandemic in India has been delayed by the eight-week lockdown along with strengthened public health measures and it may now arrive around mid-November during which there could be a paucity of isolation and ICU beds and ventilators.

In the scenario of intensified public health measures with 60 per cent effectiveness after lockdown, the demand can be met until the first week of November. After that, isolation beds could be inadequate for 5.4 months, ICU beds for 4.6, and ventilators for 3.9 months, projections by the health researchers showed. However, this shortfall is estimated to be 83 per cent less than what it could have been without the lockdown and public health measures.

If the coverage of healthcare measures can be increased to 80%, the epidemic can be mitigated. The researchers said the management of the disease would involve a dynamic review of policies and significant strengthening of the healthcare system. The overall economic health system cost of this pandemic is estimated to be 6.2% of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).