Pakistan is subcontinent’s troubled child, writes Satraajit Palchoudhury

-Satraajit Palchoudhury-

February 23: The Pulwama strike on the CRPFpersonnel in broad daylight has taken the nation by storm. Following the surgical strikes and demonetization the government claimed that militancy has reached its last leg in Jammu & Kashmir (J & K)—sadly this claim has turned out to be hollow. The Jaish-e-Mohammad’s ghastly act in Pulwama tells a different story.

The killing of ‘Ghazi baba’—the brain behind the Pulwama carnage means little because there are many more like him who are waiting for their turn to wreak havoc in restive J&K. The prime time 24×7 news channels of India have already declared war against Pakistan. These debates will surely help them get maximum TRPs, but the ground reality will not change at all.

India is reeling under terrorism since 1988. Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) launched the first militant movement in the valley under the leadership of Asfaq Majid Wani—the brazen dance of terror is still going on unabated. Many innocent lives have fallen to this mindless killing of common people. Today the situation in J&K is not only alarming but it is also raising many questions. The concrete answers are yet to come by.

Few hot headed politicians cutting across party lines are calling for a full blown war with Pakistan. Probably they have forgotten that India has already fought four wars (including Kargil war in 1999) with her troubled neighbour. Few Indian defence analysts like to make the reference of Israel’s stated policy of ‘hot pursuit’ against the militant outfits like Hamas and its siblings. Well,we forget that Israel is negotiating with non-nuclear armed entities like Hamas and rogue Palestinian terrorists.

India’s situation is totally different because the two South Asian neighbours are nuclear armed states. Pakistan has never been a true democracy and the hawkish generals of the politicized Pak Army are calling the shots. In fact, defence and foreign affairs are considered to be the sole territory of the Pakistani military establishment. In the entire subcontinent, Indian Army is the only institution that has never participated in politics. Indian Army is our pride and our neighbour’s envy—this statement will surely not create ripples.

In 1971, the subcontinent’s map was redrawn and a new nation in Bangladesh was born. India’s successful intervention in the Bangladesh liberation war not only weakened Pakistan but at the same time the humiliating defeat left an indelible mark on the Pak Army who realized that it will never be possible for them to win a direct war against India.

Following the partition of India Pakistan’s attempt to take away J&K from India began in 1947 with a limited war. The Indian Army successfully reigned in the marauding uninvited guests. India’s defeat in the 1962 war with China motivated the Pakistani generals to go for another shot in 1965. This time they chose Gujarat’s Rann of Kutch—here too they had to taste defeat. India was waiting for an opportunity and the Pakistani establishment provided it on a platter by imposing Urdu on East Pakistan (present day Bangladesh). This was unacceptable to Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and he led the tirade against the West Pakistan dictator General Yahya Khan—the rest is history.

By turning the pages of Sarmila Bose’s ‘Dead Reckoning: Memories of the 1971 Bangladesh War’ one can revisit those horrifying times experienced by the ethnic Bengalis at the hands of their West Pakistani masters. Since 1971, India has lost many opportunities to tackle Pakistan. In the past two decades, Pakistan has successfully made its strategic assets in Jaish-e-Mohammad, Hizbul Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Tayyiba.

Delhi could have solved Kashmir issue with Islamabad in 1971 when around 94,000 Pak PoWs were detained after their meek surrender in Dhaka. Delhi could have dismantled the training camps of JKLF in Pak Occupied Kashmir (PoK) way back in 1988 because the Western neighbour was not a nuclear armed state at that point of time.

The bygone days are not going to knock our doors. Those are missed opportunities. Though we are surrounded by two hostile neighbours, our policy makers are yet to come up with a national security doctrine. The Pulwama strike is not the first instance. The December 2001 Parliament attack, strikes in Uri, Pathankot and the unforgettable 26/11 Mumbai strike is still afresh in our minds. We always find our establishment in a reaction mode. We don’t see them in an action mode. In the aftermath of Pulwama strike, it would be apt to recall former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s measured definition on diplomacy—‘Quiet diplomacy is better than public posturing.’ In the midst of this outrage against Pakistan, India needs to explore few options.

Full blown war with Pakistan at this juncture is not an option. Rather there should be an amalgamation of military, diplomatic and economic offensive against Pakistan. Today the entire world is facing the menace of Islamic terror. Let’s not forget that our western neighbour is in a state of acute financial crisis. Delhi needs to cash this opportunity. The Pakistani PM is looking for bail out packages.

Like his predecessors, Khan saab is also banking on his nation’s all weather ally—China. Beijing too has remained loyal so far. Imran Khan will like to utilize Xi Jinping’s ambitious China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project to his advantage. Despite all the hullabaloos surrounding the so-called successful Wuhan summit between Delhi and Beijing, the communists have not changed their attitude towards Jaish-e-Mohammad chief Maulana Masood Azhar.

China has got its own limitations. The Chinese firms have already invested around 40 billion dollars in CPEC projects. To the Chinese, support to Jaish-e-Mohammad means insurance cover for their CPEC projects in Pak territories.Their steadfast support will force Jaish to ensure that the Chinese are not harmed. The sudden surge in terror strikes in J&K is also related to America’s decision to end its 17 year futile military operation in war-torn Afghanistan. The Taliban is once again getting ready to take over the baton of Kabul following the departure of American forces. This is not good news for India, Israel and Iran—all these nations want a stable and secure Afghanistan for their own interests.

Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS) might have hugged his Mota bhai in Delhi. The Saudi crown prince is also fishing in troubled waters. The brutal assassination of rebel Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi is creating problems for MBS. He is in spotlight. India can use this case against MBS. This issue can help India contain MBS’ love for Pakistan.

The need of the hour is to isolate Pakistan. The restless Balochistan is a thorn for Pakistan Army. Even the killing of Baloch leader Akbar Bugti could not douse the fire. Something can be cooked here. Delhi should also mull the option of forming an anti-terror block with the help of Israel and Russia. Iran might have problems with Israel on certain issues but global terrorism is a unifying force. Delhi should try to bridge this gap between the two hostile nations. Pakistan and terrorism will go hand in hand. Yes, Pakistan is subcontinent’s troubled child.