COVID-19 likely to decline life expectancy globally

Sept. 18: A research published in the journal PLOS ONE, examined the impact of COVID-19-related deaths on life expectancy for four broad world regions across multiple rates of infection and age groups. According to this study, the Covid-19 pandemic could cause a short-term decline in life expectancy in the severely affected areas of the world, unless the spread of the disease is contained.

The researchers built a model that simulates the probability of getting infected by Covid-19, the probability of dying from it, and the probability of dying from another cause for a period of one year, taking into account the different fatality rates from the disease for different age groups. They then calculated the impact of Covid-19 on life expectancy by reconstructing life tables and life expectancies from the simulation and comparing them with those used for the inputs.

This type of analysis is useful to decision makers as it shows in broad strokes the potential cost of human lives lost due to the disease., according to the researchers. The researchers point out that the potential overload of health care systems at higher rates of prevalence would inevitably lead to higher mortality. However, mortality rate may decrease as healthcare providers gain more experience and knowledge in treating the disease.