July 29: The total number of novel coronavirus cases, as we all know, has been rapidly increasing. This can be understood on the basis of 7-day rolling average. The seven-day rolling average basically means the average increase, calculated every seventh day. The trend shows that in Barak Valley, we have not yet reached the peak in terms of COVID-19 positive cases. To say that we have crossed the peak we should have a sustained downward trend which has not happened yet. This argument was put forward by Silchar MP Dr. Rajdeep Roy on the basis of a joint study during a press briefing on Wednesday.
Studied the #COVID19 curve for the #Barakvalley along with statistician Debashree Purkyastha of #UK. 1, Yet to peak in terms of total case. 2, Good recovery rate. 3, Total cases and recovery rates running parallel 4, Discharge cases higher then active case (since end june). pic.twitter.com/C7pqFEqcHW
— Dr Rajdeep Roy MP ( MS, MCh) (@drrajdeeproy) July 29, 2020
Inference :
1, Yet to peak in terms of total case.
2, Good recovery rate.
3, Total cases and recovery rates running parallel
4, Discharge cases higher then active case (since end June)
Dr. Roy based his hypothesis on statistical tools. He in collaboration with Statistician Debashree Purkyastha from the United Kingdom put up a significant study on the COVID scenario in Barak Valley. Debashree Purkayastha who originally hails from Silchar is now settled in England. She worked for Manchester University for a considerable time and at present is engaged as a Statistician with a multinational drugs company in Britain. Dr. Roy provided her the Covid data which was then put up for analysis on the logarithmic scale. This shows that the rate of increase of cases is not very steep and it might be levelling off very gradually.
The findings of the study conducted by Roy and Purkayastha brought forth a wide variety of information/ prediction based on the available data. Explaining the graphical representations, Dr. Roy said, “Gradually, Barak Valley is moving forward towards the peak, which we would reach in mid-August. During the peak days, Cachar district alone will record around 3500 to 4000 positive cases. The Valley may witness around 5000 cases on an average during the peak. He, at the same time cautioned that there is nothing to panic as the graph will start flattening only after reaching its peak.”
The projection of the rise in number of positive cases detected daily has gone up in Barak Valley in general and Cachar in particular is after the 8th July, with the start of Rapid Antigen Test along with RT-PCR test. However, total number of cases on its own, is incomplete information. We have to take into account the rate of recovery and the number of active cases.
What comes out to be a ray of hope in the study is that the total number of cases and the number of discharged cases have been running almost parallel. But the gap widened in the last two weeks or so because of new cases being detected in greater number.
It is heartening to note that since end of June the number of discharged cases has been significantly higher than the number of active cases. This implies that even though the total number of cases may be increasing, patients are also recovering in big numbers. This is good news because greater the number of discharged/ treated cases, better it is for our resources ( for example number of hospital beds etc).
Rajdeep Roy said that Cachar district or even Barak Valley as a whole is all set for the take off during the month of August. “The peak cannot be averted or rather the sooner the peak arrives, the better it would be, for the Covid graph will then start to flatten. We are all prepared for the situation. I would like to put on record the full preparedness of the 3 districts in this regard. I further extend my thanks to the 3 Deputy Commissioners, 3 Police Supers, 3 Joint Directors of health, Principal of SMCH and all other Covid Warriors for their brave fight against coronavirus. Together we can & together we will win this war against COVID-19.”
